Dec 14, 2012: Basin-By-Basin Model Adjustments

As we gain experience with the forecast, we can see where the model results fail to agree with reality on the ground, and update the model. The basins WI15C, WI14C, WI13C, WI12C (in Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties) are all up on the northwest coast of the state and have frequently been outliers for our risk forecast. We expect that the new parameters will bring them more in line. Next up is basin PDSW3 near Prairie du Sac, which may already be responding better by the time you read this. We are watching some other basins that seem to average out fine over time, but respond more slowly than their neighbors (NEWW3 near New London, SHIW3 near Shiocton, and RAYW3 near Raymond).

Dustin Goering, North Central River Forecast Center, NWS

Tags: updates,basins,model,thresholds

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